Flashpoints & Supply Chain Challenges in Asia Pacific with James Crabtree
James Crabtree shares his perspectives on the rising tensions in Asia Pacific and how these flashpoints will impact the businesses and supply chain to the rest of the world.
Fresh out of the studio, James Crabtree, executive director from International Institute of Strategic Studies Asia, joined us in a conversation on the current flashpoints in Asia Pacific from the China and Taiwan issue to India and what these tensions will mean for businesses and the global supply chain. James dived into the current dynamics of the region specifically the semiconductors shortage and provided potential scenarios in how the supply chain will be reconfigured or recalibrated due to the current world order. Last but not least, James examined if we are still going to see the Asian century in the midst of the current developments in the next few decades.
"More generally, this air of crisis is just going to force companies to look again at the wisdom of supply chains, which crisscross Asia in a way that didn't take account of geopolitical boundaries. You already see a move by many companies to try and create more robust and resilient supply chains to geopolitical shocks, and so that might mean companies like TSMC or Global Foundries building semiconductor plants in Arizona or in Singapore, it might mean companies that have previously sourced from China to create products that will ultimately be sold in the US will now source from Vietnam or from India instead." - James Crabtree
Introduction
- James Crabtree, Executive Director, IISS-Asia International Institute for Strategic Studies (Linkedin, @jamescrabtree, IISS profile)
- Our last conversation was a discussion of your book “The Billionaire Raj” and you were with the Lee Kuan Yew school of government. Since then, what has happened between now and then?
- Can you talk about what the International Institute for Strategic Studies does?
- What is your role and coverage there?
Flashpoints & Supply Chain Challenges in Asia Pacific
- I want to begin the conversation on China as I recalled you having a conversation with Kevin Rudd, the former prime minister of Australia and now the president of Asia society. As we look at the US-China ongoing tensions from Taiwan exacerbated by Nancy Pelosi’s recent visit to a slow road to supply chain decoupling with sanctions on China acquiring chokepoint technologies like semiconductors, it looks like we are heading towards the Thucydides trap or probably the tragedy of great power politics pointed by John Mearsheimer. Is war between China and the US avoidable?
- TSMC and Foxconn are important companies in Asia and they are currently based in Taiwan. What is the risk of the Asian supply chains being disrupted if China hypothetically made a move on Taiwan? Will the supply chains head back to the US for example, the passing of the CHIPS Act with Intel’s being the key benefactor?
- How should we look at the relationship between China and Russia? What do the Chinese learn from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
- With the COVID-zero lockdown, China has slowed down in the Belt & Road Initiative. Till when they open up, will they still continue their economic expansion via the BRI?
- How will Japan and Korea handle the volatility that exists in the North Asia region?
- Let’s move to India, where you are familiar with. What is the calculus for Modi and his government in the unwillingness to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?
- As you covered India for a relatively long time, will India shift from the world’s largest democracy towards something else?
- Can the fragile supply chain in Asia Pacific be able to handle the global demand in manufacturing, for example, mobile phones?
- How do Asian businesses navigate through the current geopolitical landscape in Asia?
- Flipping it back to the US and European businesses, are their expansion efforts going to be curtailed given the push back against China?
- With the world taking a retreat from globalization towards national interest, what is the future of Asia in the next decade?
Closing
- Any recommendations that have inspired you recently?
- James' recommendations: The Bureau, The Avoidable War by Kevin Rudd and Chip War by Chris Miller.
- Where can my audience find you?